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Bitcoin concluded the third quarter of 2025 at an unprecedented peak, igniting the conviction among traders that Bitcoin’s value will ascend further into the concluding quarter of the year.
The Bitcoin value wrapped up September around 5% elevated at roughly $114,000, defying forecasts of seasonal decline. September has frequently been a challenging month for Bitcoin, but when it has ended on a high note, the last quarter has generally delivered significant gains.
Evidence indicates that in years such as 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, positive September closures were succeeded by fourth-quarter surges averaging over 50%.
Seasonal trends imply early-quarter strength may be especially crucial. Since 2015, October has yielded average increases of 21.8%, while November has contributed 10.8%, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
If similar trends recur this year, Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 before the year’s end. This is a common sentiment in the Bitcoin community and could provide another boost in a year already characterized by new all-time records, arriving subsequent to the April halving event that reduced new supply of the asset by half — a milestone typically followed by upward price movement.
Bitcoin has moved sideways in recent months, yet crucial liquidity indicators hint at a potential breakout. Global M2 growth, stablecoin supply patterns, and gold’s upswing — which Bitcoin has closely mirrored with a 40-day lag — all suggest upward momentum.
Happy ‘Up’tober
Bitcoin leaped beyond $118,000 today as the U.S. government officially ceased operations at midnight after Congress was unable to pass a funding bill. While Wall Street declined, traders turned towards safe-haven assets, pushing gold to a record high above $3,900 an ounce.
The shutdown promptly impacts federal employees, Social Security beneficiaries, and travelers, while markets face interruptions from suspended economic data.
Weekly unemployment claims, September job figures, and mid-October inflation statistics may experience delays, complicating Federal Reserve policy maneuvers.
Bitcoin ETFs and institutional involvement
Institutional engagement is contributing to a optimistic outlook. BlackRock transferred over $130 million worth of Bitcoin onto Coinbase, a movement some market analysts interpret as a sign of potential money inflow into its investment offerings.
Since 2015, Bitcoin has shown an average increase of nearly 58% in the fourth quarter, outperforming every other three-month segment. Whether 2025 adheres to that historical framework will hinge on how long investors maintain risk appetite in the forthcoming months.
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