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Bitcoin is presently stabilizing subtly around the $110,000 mark, with bearish traders advocating for additional declines following weeks of fluctuations. In spite of this retreat, numerous analysts continue to express assurance that the long-term bullish momentum is preserved, emphasizing that such consolidation phases are typical in robust market cycles. As short-term sentiment seems wary, Bitcoin’s underlying support levels remain intact, keeping bulls active.
As per CryptoQuant insights shared by XWIN Group, the influential factors behind Bitcoin’s price fluctuations have evolved in recent months. Rather than ETF inflows dominating, regional liquidity conditions have come to the forefront. On-chain and exchange statistics reveal a recurring trend: Asian markets often initiate the first move, establishing the tone for intraday momentum, while US participants determine whether these movements endure or dissipate. This tug-of-war across time zones has introduced intricacies into Bitcoin’s behavior, resulting in sharp intraday variations followed by broader directional shifts.
This changing market structure emphasizes the global character of Bitcoin trading, where liquidity pathways are essential in influencing price action. As consolidation intensifies, traders are attentively observing whether Asia-initiated rallies can coincide with US institutional demand to validate the next upward phase in Bitcoin’s cycle.
Regional Liquidity ‘Conflict’ Influences Bitcoin Trajectory
As stated by XWIN Research, Bitcoin’s recent price behavior showcases a captivating struggle between US institutions and Asian traders. On the US side, Coinbase Netflow and the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) provide crucial insights. Outflows from Coinbase Prime, a platform widely utilized by institutions, generally indicate that US players are transferring BTC into custody for long-term accumulation.
The CPI, which evaluates the price differential between Coinbase (USD) and Binance (USDT), further supports this view. A positive CPI signifies robust US demand, and historical data indicates that rallies backed by a favorable CPI tend to persist instead of fading rapidly.
Conversely, Binance Netflow and the Korea Premium Index (KPI) underscore Asian retail and speculative tendencies. Significant inflows into Binance frequently precede local selling pressure, while outflows signal dip-buying interest. The KPI, commonly referred to as the “Kimchi Premium,” reflects demand from South Korea. Moderate readings between +1% and +3% indicate healthy activity, while figures exceeding +5% traditionally correlate with speculative excess and short-term peaks.
Overlaying these two regional indicators establishes a clear narrative: Asia frequently ignites the movement, yet the US determines its sustainability. When CPI and KPI align favorably, rallies synchronize, stimulating global demand. However, when US institutions realize profits while Asian traders continue to buy, volatility escalates.
The conclusion is evident—today’s Bitcoin is driven not only by large holders but also by regional liquidity pathways. Asia ignites the flame, and the US shapes it into a lasting trend. For a Q4 rally, the essential trigger will be a definitive positive change in CPI, along with Asia’s sustained capacity to absorb supply. This correlation could signify Bitcoin’s next significant upward movement.
Price Action Insights: Technical Levels To Maintain
Bitcoin’s 8-hour chart depicts a cautious consolidation phase as BTC trades around $110,918, striving to stabilize after recent downward pressure. The price behavior has frequently tested the $110K range, a vital psychological and structural support level, while exhibiting challenges in regaining momentum toward higher resistance zones.
The illustration indicates that BTC remains beneath both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, with the 200-day SMA around $114,600 presenting overhead resistance. This technical arrangement implies that while short-term recovery rallies may occur, the broader framework appears inclined toward corrective price movements unless bulls execute a robust breakout above the $113K–$115K range.
Crucially, the market’s rebound from the $123,200 all-time peak continues to affect sentiment negatively. Decreasing highs and persistent resistance against moving averages signal that BTC is still susceptible to additional downward tests, especially if it cannot hold the $110K–$108K range. A fall beneath this area could hasten a shift toward the $105K zone, where the next demand cluster resides.
Conversely, maintaining above $110K and recovering $113K would indicate renewed buying enthusiasm and could pave the way for another effort to contest $118K in the near term. At present, Bitcoin remains in a state of consolidation, with traders closely observing whether bulls can uphold this vital zone.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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