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Bitcoin Faces Increased Risk of Plummeting to $105K by Labor Day

Bitcoin Risk Of Labor Day Drop To $105K Rises

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Essential insights:

  • Bitcoin dip purchasers have returned, yet sellers in the futures and spot markets still dominate.

  • Closed markets on the Labor Day holiday and the possibility of selling by veteran Bitcoin whales could push BTC prices to $105,000 and below.

Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating turbulent waters as the price struggles to maintain levels above $108,000, with no apparent signs of a rebound on the horizon. Traders are proceeding with caution due to Wall Street being closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday and the looming threat of a Bitcoin whale potentially selling off another billion-dollar segment of BTC on the open market.

Significant transactions and liquidation from long-inactive whale-sized Bitcoin wallets, alongside converting proceeds to Ether (ETH), diminished inflows to spot BTC ETFs, and a downturn at week’s end in the DOW, S&P500, and Nasdaq are collectively influencing investor sentiment negatively. Additionally, US President Trump’s inconsistent comments regarding tariffs and the markets’ reactions to his attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve board are amplifying the pressure.

In the longer-term outlook, there are positive expectations from market participants that the Fed will initiate interest rate cuts in late September or October; however, these anticipations have not sufficiently boosted immediate investor sentiment.

From a technical analysis standpoint, Bitcoin’s intraday price movements are increasingly controlled by activities in the perpetual futures market, where the cumulative volume delta reveals that selling from the 10,000 to 10 million Binance cohort significantly surpasses buying activity in the spot and futures market at Binance and Coinbase.

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: Hyblock

While sales in futures markets continue to hinder Bitcoin price breakouts, data indicates that short positions are solidifying at each unsuccessful support/resistance transition attempt, spot buyers in the retail-size cohort (100 to 10K) are purchasing at each new low.

Related: Will Bitcoin price decline in September?
As illustrated in the graph below, the bid and ask ratio (set to 10% spot orderbook depth) reveals buyers stepping in as prices dipped into the $112,000 to $111,000 range from August 19 to August 22 and once more as BTC fell to $107,200 from Friday through Sunday. Notably, prior to August 19, the metric had not indicated instances where the order book had more bids than sell orders since June 22, when BTC prices dipped below $98,000.

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: Hyblock

Bitcoin’s 30-day liquidation heatmap indicates a continuous absorption of downside liquidity, with the most notable concentration at $104,000.

BTC/USDT 1-month lookback liquidation heatmap. Source: Hyblock

In a shorter time frame, the BTC/USDT 1-hour chart at TRDR.io displays bids emerging at $105,000, $102,600, and $100,000. Setting the order book to 10% depth reveals bids within the $99,000 to $92,000 range also.

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: TRDR.io

While buyers demonstrate eagerness to purchase dips as prices reach new lows, the liquidity of the order book, combined with BTC price weakness, favors a downward trend, allowing sellers to maintain dominance over dip buyers. Wall Street (and the spot BTC ETFs) will remain closed on Monday, and the adverse impact of veteran whales selling in the open market is probably going to persist in affecting prices in the short term.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should carry out their own research prior to making a decision.





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