Bitcoin’s renowned four-year cycle, once connected to its halving events, may be losing its prominent market influence, according to various leading analysts.
For numerous years, the halving—a systematic decrease in miner rewards every four years—had been preceded by significant surges and sharp declines in valuation.
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Currently, however, the market is increasingly affected by institutional funds, regulated investment vehicles, and overarching economic trends.
Halving’s Dominance Diminishes As Competitors Rise
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, remarked that the halving’s supply shock is notably smaller now compared to Bitcoin’s formative years, when most coins were still being mined.
In those days, the reduction in rewards had a distinct and substantial impact on the market. In April 2024, Bitcoin’s price trend deviated from historical patterns.
It seems more probable than not that the 4-year cycles are concluded. Halvings are inconsequential to trading supply; 95% of the BTC have already been mined. Supply stems from purchasing from long-time holders, while demand is derived from retail, growing ETPs on wealth platforms, and treasury firms.
— Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) August 11, 2025
It had already reached a peak exceeding $74,000 in March—weeks ahead of the halving—bolstered by the US endorsement of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in institutional purchases.
Some believe that the halving still has a role in play, yet it no longer dictates Bitcoin’s price. They highlight the growing significance of liquidity, ETF transactions, and investor sentiment, arguing that these factors now have equal weight to supply contractions.
Halving’s Impact Weakens As Market Reaches New Heights
Others perceive the event as still pertinent to miner dynamics and the long-term scarcity narrative but believe it has diminished in its capacity to influence short-term valuations.
For them, the halving simply represents one aspect of a broader context that encompasses macroeconomic shifts and influxes of foreign capital.
Statistics released by CoinMarketCap reveal that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization achieved a record high of $4.15 trillion, surpassing its earlier record of $3.80 trillion.
Trading activity has surged, with more than $140 billion worth of cryptocurrency transacted in the past 24 hours.
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Some analysts caution against dismissing the four-year cycle as defunct at this moment. Over-optimism frequently emerges around market peaks, leading many traders to overextend and ultimately incur losses.
Others have taken it further, asserting that the cycle was never an immutable law but rather a result of Bitcoin’s initial design, dominated by retail investors.
In the meantime, the four-year cycle might be concluded, according to Rochard, as halvings currently yield minimal influence with 95% of BTC mined, leaving demand driven by retail, ETPs, and corporate treasury investments.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView