In recent weeks, the altcoins’ season (commonly known as altseason) appears to be the dominant theme within the digital asset market, dominating nearly all discussions among the crypto community. This theme feels increasingly genuine due to the impressive performances of leading altcoins, ETH and XRP, in the last few weeks.
Ethereum, often referred to as the “monarch of altcoins,” has experienced a noteworthy surge over the past couple of months, regaining the $4,000 benchmark for the first instance since December 2024. Concurrently, the value of XRP has risen above $3, escalating by over 10% during the previous week.
Nonetheless, the latest on-chain analysis suggests that the altcoin season may still be in its early stages and hasn’t fully commenced yet. Altseason, a timeframe when mid/small-cap altcoins outperform BTC, is frequently characterized by a shift of capital from the top cryptocurrency to the broader market.
Previous Genuine Altcoin Season Occurred In Early 2024: Analyst
In a recent update on the X platform, an on-chain analyst known by the alias Darkfost theorized that the altseason “has not actually kicked off yet.” This assertion comes despite the relatively enhanced performance of the altcoin market in recent months, with numerous non-BTC assets leading the sector in gains.
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The reasoning behind Darkfost’s theory hinges upon the performance of various asset classes in relation to Bitcoin over the last several months. The analyst scrutinized the market cap growth of Bitcoin, large-cap altcoins (the top 20 largest altcoins), and mid-to-small-cap altcoins by assessing the difference between their 365-day and 30-day moving averages (MAs).
Generally, the discrepancy between the 365-day moving average and the 30-day moving average can be viewed as a gauge of growth momentum. Rapid market cap growth occurs when the short-term moving average (30-day MA) rises at a quicker pace than the long-term moving average (365-day MA), while a trailing 30-day moving average indicates sluggish growth momentum.
In their post on X, Darkfost remarked that the altcoin market is currently exhibiting its weakest performance in this cycle compared to the leading cryptocurrency. As illustrated in the highlighted chart, Bitcoin’s market capitalization presently surpasses that of the top 20 largest altcoins and the other mid-to-small-cap assets.
According to the crypto analyst, a similar performance trend was observed earlier this year before the overall market faced a serious decline. However, Darkfost pointed out that the most robust activity, which mirrored a “genuine” altseason, occurred during the first quarter of 2024.
Altcoin Market Capitalization
As it stands, the altcoin market is valued at over $1.55 trillion, indicating an increase of over 12% in the last seven days.
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Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView