Bitcoin embarks on the weekend in a precarious state, finding it challenging to surpass its historical peak of $112,000, as altcoins encounter mounting pressure and revert to lower values. After a tumultuous week, BTC did not manage to conclude Friday above the significant resistance, raising concerns over immediate bullish continuation. Nevertheless, experts remain cautiously hopeful as price movements are still maintained above substantial support, and a robust weekly close could pivot sentiment markedly.
Leading analyst Daan emphasized that since the market’s resurgence two weeks ago, there has been a notable Coinbase premium—a bullish indicator often associated with spot acquisition by US-based investors. This premium had previously declined amid intensified uncertainty regarding Middle Eastern geopolitical issues but has since recovered, showcasing strengthened market confidence.
Currently, traders are meticulously observing the weekend pricing to ascertain whether Bitcoin can regain $112K and enter price exploration, or if another setback will plunge it into deeper consolidation. With critical macro narratives calming down and on-chain indicators enhancing, the weekend might offer a pivotal insight regarding Bitcoin’s short-term path—and whether altcoins can rejuvenate their strength.
Bitcoin Range Narrows As Market Anticipates Breakout Signal
Bitcoin is gearing up for a crucial movement, one that could ignite renewed bullish momentum across the cryptocurrency market, especially for altcoins. Over the last few days, BTC has been solidifying within a clearly outlined range between $103,000 and $110,000. An evident breakout above this resistance or breakdown below support is anticipated to elicit a swift response, as traders await affirmation of the next directional trend.
The wider macroeconomic landscape has grown more favorable. With uncertainties from global geopolitical instabilities receding and US fiscal policies becoming clearer, the environment appears set for Bitcoin to embark on a bullish trajectory over the forthcoming months. However, risks still loom. US Treasury Yields are ascending once more, and inflation has yet to stabilize, variables that could inject volatility and hesitance into risk markets.
Daan underscored a consistent Coinbase premium since the recovery commenced two weeks ago—a positive sign indicating sustained spot demand, especially from US-based buyers. This premium had diminished during the wave of Middle Eastern concerns, but it has since bounced back and remained stable. Daan adds that this is bolstered by strong ETF inflows, an indicator of institutional confidence.
Yet, prudence is necessary. If Bitcoin falters while ETF inflows remain robust, that could signify a local peak, as observed in past cycles. For the moment, as long as pricing continues to respond to the strength of inflows and holds support above $103K, the bulls retain control. A breakthrough above $110K could unlock the potential for new historical highs, while a breach of support could trigger a sharp downturn and prolong wider recovery across the cryptocurrency landscape.
BTC Daily Chart Examination: Focus On $112K Breakout
Bitcoin persists in trading within a significant range between $103,600 and $109,300, consolidating just beneath its historical peak around $112,000. As illustrated on the daily chart, BTC has remained above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $106,469, serving as dynamic support during recent pullbacks. This suggests sustained strength in the trend, notwithstanding short-term volatility.
The chart also indicates that price has challenged the $109,300 resistance multiple times since March, yet without a definitive breakout. Volume during these retests has been relatively subdued, implying that bulls might be awaiting more substantial affirmation before committing to a sustained breakout movement. On the downside, $103,600 remains a vital support level, historically acting as a launching pad for rebounds throughout the previous two months.
The 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $98,544 and $96,364, respectively, are still trending upward, reinforcing the long-term bullish outline. If Bitcoin can convincingly close above $109,300 on robust volume, price exploration could quickly ensue, with $120,000 and beyond as prospective targets. Conversely, failure to sustain current levels may pave the way for a retest of $100K or lower, rendering this range-bound phase crucial for the market’s next course.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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