Main insights:
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Bitcoin’s OBV is increasing despite price stabilization, indicating concealed accumulation.
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A similar OBV trend in March–April preceded a 57% BTC price surge.
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A confirmed bullish flag breakout could propel Bitcoin toward $130,000-135,000 by Q3 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trapped in a range between $102,000 and $112,000 since May, yet its on-balance volume (OBV) persists in rising, suggesting further gains ahead.
Increasing OBV suggests Bitcoin accumulation
The price-OBV divergence indicates increasing “buying pressure,” as per market analyst Cas Abbé, who anticipates that a rising OBV will support BTC’s price reaching the $130,000–$135,000 range by Q3 2025.
The OBV metric measures volume to assess whether buyers or sellers dominate the market. It adds volume on days when prices close higher and deducts it on days when they fall. Therefore, a rising OBV indicates that total buying volume exceeds selling volume.
In Bitcoin’s situation, the OBV has continued to reach higher peaks since early May, even as prices have primarily consolidated sideways during that time. From a technical standpoint, such divergence hints at underlying demand building up.
Previous OBV divergence resulted in 57% BTC price increases
Historical trends reveal that Bitcoin typically experiences significant breakout when rising OBV confirms underlying buying pressure during phases of price consolidation.
Between March and April 2025, BTC was trading sideways within the range of $76,000 and $84,000, when OBV began to form higher lows. This divergence was succeeded by a 57% rally, with BTC surpassing $110,000 by May.
This fractal could validate analyst Cas Abbé’s assertion that a move toward $130,000–$135,000 may materialize in Q3 2025 if it unfolds as expected.
Bull flag supports $130,000 BTC price scenario
Bitcoin seems to be forming a classic bull flag pattern, a continuation formation that generally arises following robust upward movements, followed by a period of consolidation.
On the daily chart, BTC’s rise to nearly $112,000 in May from about $93,670 established the “flagpole.” Since then, the price has been consolidating downward within a parallel channel, forming the “flag.”
This configuration implies that BTC may be preparing for another upward movement. This would position Bitcoin’s breakout target around $130,000, closely aligning with Cas Abbé’s prediction for Q3 2025.
Related: No one will sell their Bitcoin once it taps $130K: Bitwise CEO
The bull flag target matches the forecasts of several market analysts, including Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, who envisions Bitcoin reaching $130,000-150,000 due to strong institutional demand and a weaker dollar.
Analyst Stockmoney Lizards, among various others, predict that Bitcoin’s price will rise even higher, targeting a year-end goal of $200,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.