Bitcoin Set to Soar to $450,000 in a Liquidity-Fueled Supercycle

At Sui Basecamp, macro investor and Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal presented a typically extensive discourse that framed the current crypto market scenario as the inception of what he referred to as a “liquidity-driven supercycle” — with Bitcoin potentially soaring to $450,000 before its conclusion. Drawing from over three decades of macroeconomic research, Pal articulated his thesis through the lens of what he names the “Everything Code,” a framework centered on global liquidity, debt cycles, and currency depreciation as the primary elements shaping asset prices across all sectors.

Why is $450,000 Bitcoin Feasible?

“Bitcoin’s annual rate of change is influenced by financial conditions with a three-month delay,” stated Pal, highlighting the remarkably consistent connection between total global liquidity and the price movement of significant assets. “The correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity is 90%, and with the Nasdaq, it’s 95%. It’s difficult to argue that this isn’t what’s occurring.” According to Pal, this correlation is not accidental — it is fundamentally linked to how the contemporary macro system functions, particularly in a post-2008 era marked by persistent debt burdens and systemic liquidity infusions.

Pal asserted that most individuals misinterpret the genuine catalyst of crypto cycles. “Everyone discusses the halving, but this pertains to the debt refinancing cycle. Every four years, global debt is renewed, and central banks are compelled to inject liquidity to avert systemic collapse.” He noted that the typical maturity of global debt is four years, centered in the three- to five-year range, which naturally creates cyclical liquidity waves that align with market surges in crypto.

The mechanism, Pal posited, is a global financial shell game: “Scarce assets keep ascending in value — real estate, stocks, art, gold. Young people find them unaffordable. What’s truly happening is a worldwide tax of 8% annually that goes unrecognized. Add in another 3% global inflation, and you’re facing an 11% depreciation.” In this framework, Bitcoin — with its limited supply and decentralized essence — becomes, in Pal’s estimation, a rational escape route for capital.

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Significantly, Pal characterized Bitcoin as the top-performing asset throughout financial history, citing a 27.5 million percent return since 2012 and an average annualized return of 130%, notwithstanding substantial drawdowns. “Nothing has ever come close,” he remarked, before juxtaposing its performance with that of Ethereum (113%) and Solana (142%), noting that Solana’s data pertains to a shorter timeframe.

While some of his assertions may seem exaggerated, Pal supported them with thorough macro analysis and established indicators. He referenced his utilization of Demark indicators — a technical analysis tool — which signaled critical market turning points in earlier cycles, and are now indicating a breakout continuation for Bitcoin.

According to his models, should the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index achieve a value of 57, Bitcoin could be appropriately valued at $450,000. “Is it exact? No. But all the individuals asserting it will reach $150K or $250K are probably influenced by the last cycle,” Pal emphasized, highlighting the significance of forward-looking data.

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He also dismissed the prevailing bearish sentiment as misdirected and retrospective: “People are crafting narratives for today to clarify liquidity conditions from three months ago,” he remarked, critiquing common economic commentary on platforms like X. To Pal, the market has already accounted for recent economic frailties — including concerns surrounding tariffs, the slowing economy, and geopolitical frictions — and is beginning to transition towards the next liquidity expansion phase. “Bitcoin’s already priced it down to 47.4 on the business cycle indicator,” he noted, referencing data that had just been released the day before. “But financial conditions lead by nine months, and they’re shifting.”

When Will BTC Reach Its Peak?

Pal’s broader perspective is that we are now entering the “banana zone,” his term for the high-velocity segment of the crypto cycle characterized by rapid price increases. “Every cycle appears similar. Breakout, retest, banana zone. We’ve experienced banana one, the corrective zone, banana two. What lies ahead is banana three.” He believes the current setup is exceptionally robust due to a combination of factors: synchronized global liquidity growth, a weakening dollar, central banks beginning to relax, and both retail and institutional underexposure to risk assets.

As he concluded his address, Pal reiterated his thesis with both urgency and caution: “We have central banks devaluing currency, providing us with a monumental tailwind. They do not wish for the system to collapse. Each time something occurs, they inject more liquidity. They’re supplying you with free money. And to accept that money, you
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“Need the unpredictability.” He cautioned against excessive trading, utilizing leverage, or succumbing to anxiety during unavoidable pullbacks. “Don’t screw this up,” he remarked, alluding to his previous missteps during the 2017 bullish surge. “Maintain your tokens. Exercise caution. Avoid FOMO. Pursue the liquidity.”

Pal anticipates this phase could persist possibly into Q1 or Q2 of 2026, particularly if the political landscape regarding a potential Trump re-election propels the liquidity cycle even further. Whether Bitcoin will ultimately approach $450,000 is uncertain, but Pal’s perspective is evident: the macroeconomic support is favorable, the data corroborates it, and this may be — as he describes it — “the most significant macro opportunity ever.”

As of the latest update, BTC was priced at $94,191.

Image generated with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com