By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter
THE PHILIPPINES’ agricultural production declined by an unprecedented 2.2% in 2024, as agricultural output persisted in its downward trend in the last quarter.
Information from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) indicated that the value of production in agriculture and fisheries at constant 2018 rates fell by 2.2% to P1.73 trillion, marking a reversal from the 0.4% increase achieved in 2023.
The 2024 figure was below the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) projected growth target of 1-2%.
The poor performance of the agricultural sector last year was primarily attributed to the decline in crop (-4.2%), livestock (-4.3%) and fishery production (-1.1%). Conversely, poultry production experienced a rise of 6.6%.
In the fourth quarter, the value of agricultural production declined by 2.2% to P483.58 billion, reversing from a 0.9% increase recorded a year before.
Nonetheless, this represented the third consecutive quarter of decline, albeit at a slower rate compared to the 3.6% drop observed in the July-to-September timeframe.
At current prices, the value of agricultural and fisheries production increased by 0.4% year-on-year to P663.06 billion in the fourth quarter.
“The 2.2% decrease in Philippine agriculture for 2024 was due to several challenges. El Niño in the first half and La Niña in the fourth quarter disrupted the production of crops, livestock, and fisheries,” said Marie Annette Galvez-Dacul, Executive Director of the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) Center for Food and Agribusiness, in a Viber message.
During the first half of 2024, the country experienced below-normal rainfall conditions attributed to El Niño, which was followed by La Niña bringing a series of storms that devastated various agricultural regions.
“The drop in agricultural output in 2024 is the result of a combination of factors, which include the effects of El Niño and La Niña, typhoons and flooding, as well as a lack of technical support at the local level,” stated former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar in a text message.
El Niño, which commenced in June 2023, caused extended periods of reduced rainfall, dry spells, and drought conditions. The state weather agency announced its conclusion in June 2024.
Conversely, La Niña conditions are anticipated to persist until the conclusion of the first quarter.
“The primary cause of the (contraction) stemmed from the damages reported from El Niño, along with the series of typhoons from La Niña, other plant and pest diseases, volcanic eruptions, and additional weather events,” said DA spokesperson Arnel V. de Mesa during a media briefing.
According to the DA, total agricultural damage from these occurrences amounted to P57.78 billion, with a total volume loss of 2.18 million metric tons (MT) affecting 993,823 hectares of farmland.
Raul Q. Montemayor, National Manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, noted that the decline had been anticipated due to the natural disasters and animal diseases impacting the agricultural sector.
“It also highlights the sector’s lack of resilience — sluggish growth during normal conditions, but susceptible when disasters and disruptions occur,” he remarked.
CROPS, LIVESTOCK
Crop yields, which comprised over half of the total agricultural output, fell 3.1% in the October-to-December timeframe, marking a contrast to the 0.3% growth a year earlier.
For the entire year, crop production decreased by 4.2%, reversing the 0.8% rise registered in 2023.
Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano remarked in a Viber message that crop yields were significantly affected by El Niño and La Niña.
PSA statistics indicated that palay, or unmilled rice production, dropped by 0.1% in the fourth quarter compared to the 0.2% gain a year prior. In 2024, palay output plummeted by 5%, reversing a 1.5% increase in 2023.
Palay production volume decreased by an annual 4.84% to a four-year low of 19.09 million MT in 2024, the weakest output since the 19.29 million MT recorded in 2020.
In the fourth quarter, corn production declined by 0.6%, recovering from a 1.8% decrease a year earlier. For the entire year, corn yields fell by 3.2%, marking a turnaround from the 1.8% growth in 2023.
Other crops witnessing double-digit reductions in the fourth quarter included mongo (-48.2%), sugarcane (-23.5%) and onion (-11.1%).
PSA data indicated that livestock production experienced a decline of 6.2% in the fourth quarter, reversing a 2.7% increase a year ago.
For 2024, livestock yields decreased by 4.3%, contrasting with the 2.5% growth from the previous year.
In the fourth quarter, declines were reported in hogs (-7.3%), goats (-4.1%) and cattle (-2.7%).
Conversely, dairy production increased by 4.8%, slowing from a 16.4% growth a year earlier.
In a Viber message, National Federation of Hog Farmers, Inc. (NatFed) Vice-Chairman Alfred Ng mentioned that the effects of the African Swine Fever (ASF) on hog production adversely impacted the livestock sector, with hogs forming 14.6% of total livestock output.
“Numerous farmers sold their pig inventory prior to ASF reaching their livestock. Some have refrained from restocking for fear of the disease recurrence, while others are awaiting results from monitored vaccine trials,” he added.
Mr. Ng noted that increased rainfall and flooding due to La Niña led to a rise in ASF cases “as pathogens from shallow graves of previous pig mortalities may have resurfaced and infected the animals.”
FISHERIES
Meanwhile, fishery output fell by 2.1% in the fourth quarter, a less severe decline than the 5.3% recorded a year earlier. For 2024, fishery production decreased by 1.1%, a slowdown compared to the 6.6% plunge in 2023.
During the October-to-December period, substantial declines were noted in the production of mudcrab or alimango (-28.9%), cavalla or talakitok (-24.9%), big-eyed scad or matangbaka (-20.6%), Indian mackerel or alumahan (-20%), skipjack or gulyasan (-19.1%), slipmouth or sapsap (-17.7%), frigate tuna or tulingan (-17%), yellowfin tuna (15%), round scad or galunggong (-14.3%), seaweed (-12.7%), and squid (-12.4%).
On the other hand, increases in production were reported for P. Vannamei (59.4%), milkfish or bangus (10.9%), blue crab or alimasag (7.2%), threadfin or bisugo (4%), and bigeye tuna (0.1%).
Mr. Adriano indicated that the drop in fishery output could also be linked to “climatic factors” and the sluggish progress of the country’s aquaculture sector.
“The imposition of closed fishing seasons is essential, hence the necessity to boost investments in aquaculture,” Mr. Dar remarked.
Closed fishing seasons are designated in specific areas to assist fish populations in their regeneration, as mandated by Republic Act No. 8550 or the Fisheries Code. Usually, these closures last for three months.
POULTRY
The PSA noted that poultry production increased by 6.1% in the fourth quarter, decelerating from 7.8% growth a year prior.
For the entire year, poultry output rose by 6.6%, surpassing the 3.8% growth observed in 2023.
Production surged for chicken (5%), chicken eggs (9.8%) and duck (0.3%), while duck eggs declined by 3.1%.
“The poultry subsector managed to progress due to the efforts and investments from the private sector, including medium-sized enterprises. There was a faster turnaround in poultry management,” Mr. Dar stated.
Ms. Dacul from UA&P remarked that growth in the poultry sector was primarily driven by heightened demand and shortened production cycles.
“The poultry industry is still in recovery mode, as long as they manage to control diseases, the sector will continue to grow. However, excessive imports could hinder this growth trajectory,” Mr. Montemayor warned.
The agricultural sector contributes approximately 10% to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and supports about a quarter of all employment opportunities. The PSA is set to publish fourth-quarter GDP figures on Jan. 30 (Thursday).