PHL executives assess effects of emerging challenges for 2025
By Bjorn Biel M. Beltran, Special Features and Content Assistant Editor
The narrative remains optimistic for the Philippines’ economic prospects. However, there is still a considerable journey ahead before the nation transitions to the next phase of attaining “upper middle-income status,” with 2025 marking just the initial milestone.
National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan expresses confidence that the Philippines will achieve this official status this year. Upper middle-income nations are economies classified by the World Bank as having a gross national income per capita—essentially the average income generated by individuals within the nation and by Filipinos overseas—falling between $4,516 and $14,005 for the fiscal year 2025.
Numerous leaders share his positivity. Frederic C. DyBuncio, president and CEO of SM Investments Corp. (SMIC), stated in an interview that there are various favorable trends that enhance the business community’s faith in the Philippines’ uninterrupted expansion.
“Business confidence has remained steady despite economic hurdles, indicating strong adaptability within the business sector. Companies have successfully learned to navigate foreign exchange and interest rate fluctuations,” he remarked.
Jeffrey C. Lim, president of SM Prime Holdings, mirrored his views. “We anticipate that the Philippine economy will persist in its growth trajectory into 2025. The economic team’s GDP target of over 6.0% is achievable thanks to moderating inflation, strong domestic demand, and vigorous government expenditure,” he noted.
Fostering resilience amid instability
Inflation continues to be a persistent issue. Institutions like the Asian Development Bank have maintained their projections for the Philippine economy at 6.2% for 2025, with growth anticipated to be propelled by broad domestic demand supported by lower inflation and interest rates. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas forecasts this year’s inflation to average at 3.3%.
“If inflation continues to ease, we anticipate an enhancement in the interest rate landscape, which could benefit both businesses and consumers. Any further reduction in inflation is likely to restore consumer confidence, creating additional growth prospects in consumer-oriented sectors,” Mr. DyBuncio added.
“For me, two significant aspects I anticipate in 2025 are a more stable inflation rate. Prices of goods have risen sharply since 2022 and continued to increase until 2024. However, I hope that prices stabilize now and purchasing power has slightly adjusted as well. I look forward to this so we can minimize market shocks and let the economy progress as anticipated,” Pammy Olivares-Vital, president and CEO of Ovialand, expressed in an interview.
“The second aspect would certainly be political — globally with the return of President Trump and locally with our own elections. This activity often triggers an increase in spending, so hopefully it will stimulate economic activity.”
Multiple global organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, have voiced concerns regarding the possible repercussions of President Donald J. Trump’s return to the office on the global economy, given that his proposed economic strategies — which encompass significant tax reductions, import tariffs, deregulation, and mass deportations — could intensify inflation in the United States (US), disrupt global trade, and create labor shortages in specific sectors.
Particularly, the import tariffs could diminish global economic growth of 2.7% in 2025 by 0.3 percentage points, according to the World Bank, if the US’s trading partners retaliate with their tariffs. This potential downturn could create a ripple effect on emerging markets like the Philippines, impacting crucial aspects such as stability in foreign exchange and trade dynamics.
“Businesses are especially attuned to fluctuations in foreign exchange, and recent instability in the peso has significantly influenced import expenses. We must also observe global monetary policies, particularly decisions from the Federal Reserve, which could impact peso stability,” SMIC’s Mr. DyBuncio noted.
He further remarked that Mr. Trump’s return could introduce a blend of opportunities and challenges for the nation, considering its strategic positioning and robust economic connections with the US, especially in trade-related areas.
“Regarding risks, protectionist measures could incite trade conflicts, particularly in sectors where the Philippines relies on US markets. The Philippines will need to adjust to this evolving political environment while ensuring it harnesses potential bilateral advantages,” he stated.
Ms. Olivares-Vital remains optimistic. “Regardless of some of his surprising remarks, President Trump is a Republican, and his rightist inclinations are aimed at reinforcing their economy. And when the US thrives, I believe we experience some positive effects as well,” she noted.
“Donald Trump’s return to the White House introduces a significant new aspect to global trade and Philippine-US relations,” Mr. Lim of SM Prime stated, adding that alterations in US policies could create opportunities for the Philippines to diversify its partnerships and fortify its domestic industries and competitiveness.
“The Philippines has consistently demonstrated resilience and flexibility in navigating changing global dynamics. I believe the government will proactively and strategically seek collaborations that enhance relationships while safeguarding our national priorities,” he noted.
Positioning the Philippines on the global stage
At this pivotal moment in the Philippines’ advancement, the nation has the potential to emerge as a crucial player in global supply chains, particularly given the escalating trade tensions between the US and China.
The nation’s natural geographical advantages place it at a strategic intersection of significant trading routes, offering access to essential markets in Asia, the Americas, and Europe, hence positioning it as a logical hub for logistics, manufacturing, and regional commerce—if the country manages its opportunities effectively.
“The Philippines encounters the intricate challenge of sustaining strong trade relationships with both the US and China, its two foremost trading partners,” Mr. DyBuncio emphasized. “Vital sectors such as electronics and manufacturing are notably susceptible to disturbances in US-China trade relations due to their reliance on raw materials and components from both nations.”
“Balancing trade relations with the US and China also necessitates strategic diplomacy and economic foresight from the government. While conflicts between these global powers present risks, they also highlight the necessity of diversifying markets, nurturing domestic capabilities, and ensuring resilience across essential sectors.”
He also mentioned that the Philippine government could ideally adopt a multifaceted strategy to strengthen economic relations with the US, which includes enhancing bilateral trade agreements to secure favorable conditions for Filipino exports and drawing US investments, as well as fostering goodwill through people-to-people diplomacy by promoting cultural, educational, and tourism exchanges.
Additionally, he stated that the government could tackle immigration and remittance-related concerns by proactively ensuring the welfare of Filipino workers overseas and maintaining a consistent flow of remittances.
Mr. Lim asserted that enhancing economic relations with the US requires proactive and positive diplomacy, concentrating on common interests like technology, education, and infrastructure advancement.
“In terms of immigration and remittances, it is vital to keep track of potential policy alterations that could impact Filipino laborers and their families. The government should persist in advocating for the welfare of our overseas workforce while investigating avenues to diversify markets and strengthen economic resilience,” Mr. Lim expressed.
Since the Philippines is predominantly a consumer-driven market, ensuring that the country’s supply chains are free from disruptions is vital for sustaining robust growth — a reality that Ms. Olivares-Vital of Ovialand can confirm.
“Personally, the global political tensions have influenced our supply chain,” she acknowledged.
“Global supply chains have faced considerable interruptions due to geopolitical tensions and the ongoing repercussions of the pandemic, presenting challenges for local enterprises such as supply disruptions and escalating costs,” Mr. Lim stated.
“To lessen the repercussions of these geopolitical threats on the Philippine economy, the government might emphasize essential strategies such as investing in infrastructure to enhance logistics efficiency, encouraging local manufacturing to lessen dependence on imports, and executing policies that lure foreign direct investment to boost local employment, competitiveness, and economic resilience.”
In light of such circumstances, regional collaboration becomes even more imperative.
“In a time of increasing global trade tensions and geopolitical unpredictabilities, regional cooperation through entities like ASEAN and trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has become progressively crucial for the Philippines,” Mr. DyBuncio mentioned.
As he pointed out, these agreements can assist the Philippines in diversifying its trade allies, stabilizing exports, and fostering economic integration within the region, serving as a buffer against external shocks.
“Global supply chain interruptions, influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and natural disasters, are increasingly impacting local enterprises in the Philippines,” he remarked.
Mr. Lim emphasized how vital regional cooperation is for continuous growth. Engagement through ASEAN and involvement in agreements like RCEP grants the Philippines access to broader markets, varied trade prospects, and collective negotiating capacity. Such partnerships enhance economic stability and create pathways for growth in the face of global uncertainties.
“The government can implement the following actions to safeguard the Philippine economy: promote the localization of supply chains by aiding local industries to produce critical components and diminish reliance on imports; invest in technology by improving digital infrastructure to enhance supply chain tracking and adaptability; and cultivate trade agreements by establishing strong trade connections with regional and international allies to safeguard against global disruptions,” Mr. DyBuncio proposed.
The ultimate challenge of adequacy
Mr. DyBuncio further emphasized how global trade restructurings could present an opportunity for the Philippines, while also posing considerable risks.
“To establish itself as an appealing investment hub, our nation must concentrate on fostering a favorable atmosphere for business, utilizing its strategic position, and addressing critical areas for improvement that encompass: refining the business landscape by simplifying regulations, minimizing bureaucracy, and improving the overall ease of conducting business; embracing sustainability by encouraging investments in renewable energy to attract foreign capital in green industries; and upgrading infrastructure through investments to enhance connectivity and logistics, which can boost overall business efficiency and support growth in both domestic and foreign investments,” he elaborated.
In renewable energy specifically, the Philippines holds the potential to emerge as a global leader. According to the 2024 Climatescope Report by BloombergNEF, the nation ranked second, trailing only India as the most appealing emerging market for renewable energy investments — notably surpassing mainland China. This marks a rise from fourth place in 2023 and an extraordinary jump from 20th place in 2021.
Nevertheless, growth should not be pursued merely for its own sake. The country must remain cognizant of what such a potentially bright future truly entails. Manny V. Pangilinan, who is the chairman and president of Metro Pacific Investments Corp. along with his leadership roles in enterprises like PLDT, Smart, and Meralco, possessed a more nuanced perspective on such promising opportunities.
“We see [ourselves] from the traditional viewpoint of providing goods and services for profit,” he explained. “That’s what our stakeholders expect. That’s what they demand from the stores, managers, and the business. So that’s our foundational premise.”
“Yet beyond that, there exists a larger social component to our operations — that is the enhancement of lives and the welfare of all. The ultimate measure of our adequacy as a business is truly how well we have improved the lives of our people, our clients, and generally, the citizens of the Philippines in terms of the job and the business we engage in.”
“And we believe that this is what defines us. It shapes our group’s identity. We bear a significant responsibility to our community in how we conduct our business.”
Mr. Pangilinan observed that Mr. Trump’s policies on reinvesting in fossil fuels such as gas and coal echoed the same idea: that leaders should concentrate on what they perceive their people need. He recounted instances of his social work, where he witnessed children being compelled to abandon their education to sell scrap metal due to poverty.
“At times I ponder whether they are concerned about whether the air is clean and the water is pure. They likely worry more about having food on the table and clothes on their back. And whatever else is essential for human survival,” he remarked.
Whether the Philippines aspires to be a global leader in renewables, or simply strives to reach its aim of attaining upper middle-income status this year, growth must primarily serve the purpose of enhancing lives.
Speaking on behalf of SMIC, Mr. DyBuncio stated, “As we look forward to 2025, enhancing resilience and managing risks within our sector remains a primary focus. Acknowledging the potential challenges posed by global economic slowdowns or recessions, we have adopted strategic initiatives to reinforce our position and ensure sustainability during volatile periods.”
“While uncertainties persist in the global economic arena, SM Group’s proactive stance on risk management and resilience-building equips us to navigate possible challenges. By prioritizing adaptability, operational efficiency, and financial stability, we are confident in our capacity to endure downturns while ensuring prolonged growth.”
SM Prime’s Mr. Lim concurred, sharing their own visions for the future. “Our diverse portfolio, which includes malls, housing, hotels, and offices, empowers us to manage risks related to sector-specific declines. We have also made substantial investments in climate-adaptive and disaster-resilient infrastructure to lower our operating expenses and lessen operational risks, while ensuring business continuity.”
“Whether concerning the financial institutions facing industry exposure or affecting our supply chain, we must be exceptionally vigilant in all our actions,” concluded Ms. Olivares-Vital from Ovialand.
“When I contemplate all these extreme scenarios, I return to one essential question: How do we enhance value for the market we serve? This is a constant reminder for us to guarantee that every peso we allocate and every initiative we undertake must consider the Filipino middle-class homebuyer. When the homebuyers are satisfied, profitability ensues!”