Bitcoin has witnessed an unprecedented bullish surge, eclipsing previous peaks nearly every day in the past three weeks. Following an extraordinary rally, the price is now under 2% from the $100,000 threshold—a pivotal psychological point that could signal a crucial inflection for the entire crypto ecosystem. Traders and analysts are keenly observing this benchmark, as surpassing it could ignite a new surge in market momentum and wider adoption.
On-chain analytics shared by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju indicate that Bitcoin’s current ascent may still have potential for further advancement. Ju underscores that the market seems too premature to label as a bubble, given that the overall market capitalization has not experienced substantial growth relative to cumulative on-chain capital inflows. This measure suggests that the price movements are driven by actual demand rather than speculative frenzy, bolstering confidence in Bitcoin’s sustained bullish path.
With Bitcoin spearheading this movement, its approach towards $100,000 could shape the sentiment for the broader crypto market. Whether it breaks through or encounters resistance, the results will likely affect market psychology, offering insights into the future for the world’s premier cryptocurrency and the digital asset realm overall.
Bitcoin Metrics Indicate Elevated Expectations
Bitcoin has been reaching historical highs, yet it “struggles” to penetrate the crucial $100,000 barrier. Nevertheless, the general market sentiment remains optimistic, with analysts forecasting that the price might keep climbing. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has provided significant insights on X, indicating that the Bitcoin cycle peak may potentially surpass $141,000.
Based on Ju’s assessment, the current market conditions imply that BTC is still in the nascent phases of its bull market, making it too early to categorize the rally as a bubble. A vital data point Ju highlights is the realized cap, which has been steadily increasing daily. The realized cap, determined by aggregating the value of all BTC at the price at which they were last transacted on-chain, serves as a gauge of the total capital influx into the BTC market.
Ju notes that traditionally, Bitcoin’s market cap tends to outstrip its realized cap during bullish phases, peaking as retail investors flock in. Conversely, during bearish trends, the market cap frequently dips below the realized cap.
As the realized cap continues to ascend, it reinforces the case for an ongoing upward movement in BTC’s price, with prospects of reaching or even exceeding $141,000 before the market peaks. This analysis strengthens the notion that, despite Bitcoin’s near-effort to surpass $100,000, the market retains significant potential for growth before a probable apex is realized.
Growing Demand for BTC Driving Price Upward
Bitcoin is nearing its highest weekly close ever as it approaches the $100,000 threshold, currently solidly above $98,000. The price movements have confirmed the bullish accumulation formation, a cup and handle, that began to develop in November 2021.
This formation suggests that BTC is establishing a robust foundation, and a confirmed breakout beyond $98,000 could pave the way for a rise past the psychological $100,000 milestone as soon as Monday. A strong close today could indicate a continuation of the bullish trend, with potential for additional upward movement.
Nevertheless, there remains some caution regarding the likelihood of a feeble breakout. If the price has difficulty maintaining levels above $100,000 post-breakout, it could initiate a pullback, leading to a correction prior to the next phase of the rally.
Failure to sustain levels above $98,000 today would also heighten the risk of a short-term retracement, with support zones below this level becoming crucial in assessing the strength of the present rally. Despite the potential for a minor correction, the overall market sentiment continues to lean bullish, with numerous analysts projecting ongoing gains if the $100,000 barrier is decisively broken.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView